Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
