Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
